A new poll by YouGov (pdf) puts Conservative Mayoral candidate Boris Johnson firmly in the lead, with six points over his nearest rival Labour’s Ken Livingstone.
While Livingstone was ahead among those under forty and “non-white” voters Johnson is still in a strong lead with 11% of those planning to Labour for the Assembly intending to vote against Labour for Mayor. This difference is particular pronounced among women voters with more than half those polled intending for vote Conservative – a 15% lead among women over Livingstone.
This stands in stark contract to the Assembly list vote where Labour has a stunning 11% lead over the Conservatives and a 9% lead in the Constituencies despite trailing in the Mayoral vote.
When asked what qualities the Mayoral candidates display Johnson’s strong points were charm and sticking to what he believed in, but was weakest on being “good in a crisis”. Livingstone was also seen as sticking to what he believes in and being in touch with ordinary voters. He weakest point was seen as his “honesty”.
Few voters had strong opinions on Brian Paddick’s qualities although he was weakest on charisma and leadership skills.
When asked who the candidates were keenest to help voters thoughts Livingstone’s priorities would be black and Asian communities as well as the poor, whilst a whacking 78% thought Johnson would favour the rich. Interestingly, while just 9% of voters thought Livingstone was keen to help Jewish Londoners this was actually higher than for Boris Johnson who polled just 5%.
The Assembly Vote
While Labour had a strong lead on the Assembly the Liberal Democrats were polling at 9% on the list and 11% in the Constituencies, which is similar to their 2008 results.
The poll showed a dip in support for the Greens at 3% which, if reflected in the vote in May would see the party lose all its Assembly seats for the first time since the Assembly was founded. Their Mayoral candidate, Jenny Jones, was shown level pegging with independent candidate Siobhan Benita.
As expected the far-right BNP’s vote is barely registering while UKIP, on 5%, might just manage to regain seats on the Assembly. Of course polling for the smaller parties is always less reliable due to the reduced sample size.
Campaigns
When asked about the campaigns for Johnson, Livingstone and Paddick those polled thought the Conservatives had run the best campaign (39 to 27), while more voters thought Livingstone (30 to 38) and Paddick (11 to 35) had run poor campaigns. Of course the only poll that counts is on May 3rd.
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